USDA Cattle on Feed Summary   11/20 14:04

   October Placement Below Expectations

   Based on the November On Feed report, DTN's placement model indicates more 
cattle could be ready for marketing in January and February than previously 
expected.

By John Harrington
DTN Livestock Analyst

    


Cattle on Feed Report
                      USDA Actual Average Guess Guess Range
On Feed Nov 1           101.0%       101.50%    100.5-102.5%
Placed in October       101.0%       102.50%       98.5-106%
Marketed in October      97.0%       97.00%         95.0-98%

   OMAHA (DTN) -- The November 1 cattle on feed report USDA released Friday 
afternoon fell generally within pre-report guesses, and is unlikely to have 
much impact when futures trade resumes Monday, according to DTN Livestock 
Analyst John Harrington.

   The total U.S. cattle on feed on November 1 was 101 percent of a year ago, 
below the average guess of 101.5 percent, and within the range of estimates. 
Cattle placed on feed also totaled 101 percent of a year ago, below the average 
guess of 102.5 percent. Pre-report guesses for placements had ranged from 98.5 
percent to 106 percent.

   The number of cattle marketed in October was 97 percent of a year ago, 
matching pre-report estimates.

   "On its surface, the November 1 feedlot inventory looks boring and generally 
well anticipated," Harrington said. "Both on feed and placement totals turned 
out to be a bit smaller than the trade was looking for, but probably not enough 
to turn many trading heads. Yet there may be a devil or two in the details, 
especially regarding the front-loaded nature of the placement weight breakdown.

   "While gross placement last month exceeded the previous year by only 1 
percent, the mix contained a surprising numbers of steers and heifers weighing 
over 800#: under 600#, 615,000 head, off 12 percent; 600-699#, 645,000, up 5 
percent; 700-799#, 579,000, up 6.5 percent; 800# and over, 635,000, up 9.5 
percent.

   "Given the fairly aggressive placement of big feeders since midsummer, most 
analysts assumed that feedlots would have to tap lighter weight classes as 
placement needs moved deeper into the fall. But this new data indicates the 
first quarter supply of ready cattle stands to be even larger than previously 
thought.

   "The DTN placement model now projects that big lots have approximately 2.078 
million scheduled to finish in February, nearly 10 percent more than 2009. Yet 
the model has 4 percent fewer scheduled for January. Overall, Aug-Oct placement 
numbers seem to imply that big lots will offer a Jan-Feb showlist 2-3 percent 
larger than the previous year," Harrington said.


(AG)

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